Beijing semifinal: Will this be Pegula’s moment or Noskova’s breakthrough?

Separated by 11 years, they come together from opposite sides of two traditional powers in women’s tennis.

Jessica Pegula, at 31, is one of three Americans to reach the semifinals at this China Open -- and the second oldest ever.

“I’ve been asked this question a lot in the past two years, because there’s a lot of us doing really, really well,” the No. 5-seeded Pegula said. “I think we’re all kind of pushing each other, motivating each other, inspiring each other. It’s kind of taken the pressure off that there’s not just one person carrying the torch.”

Linda Noskova, at 20, is the youngest Czech Republic player to reach the semifinals of a WTA 1000 event since the format introduction in 2009.

“It’s definitely tough to have so many players from Czechia play before me -- there’s a lot of us,” Noskova said. “That is a great statistic.”

Seeded No. 26, Noskova defeated Sonay Kartal 6-3, 6-4 in a Friday quarterfinal match to advance to her first WTA 1000 semifinal. Later, Pegula converted her third match point, coming back to defeat No. 16 seed Emma Navarro 6-7 (2), 6-2, 6-1.

Saturday’s 6 p.m. semifinal (6 a.m. ET) will be their third meeting this year. Back in February, Noskova won a Round of 16 match in Dubai in straight sets and roughly four months later Pegula took a Bad Homburg semifinal in three sets.

Let’s take a closer look:

The Case for Pegula

Pegula will be the first to tell you that these slow courts in Beijing do not play to her strengths.

That said, she’s found a way to survive and advance. Pegula dropped the first set to Emma Raducanu in the third round and rallied to win in three -- it was 6-0 in the third. After Marta Kostyuk won a second-set tiebreak, Pegula responded with a 6-1 final frame. After failing to convert six set points in the opening frame, she duplicated that result to close out Navarro. 

That’s a remarkable 18 of 20 games in the crucible of the deciding set, as good a definition of clutch as you’re going to find. Pegula’s done it by making a series of small adjustments.

“Honestly, with me this week, I’ve been trying to slow things down,” Pegula said after defeating Navarro. “It sounds counterintuitive, but actually do less. And that kind of helps me find my flow a little bit, especially in these slow conditions that maybe doesn’t favor me as much. 

“I was just telling myself, ‘Don’t overdo the strategy.’ That allowed me to relax a little bit.”

Thinking without overthinking has allowed Pegula to win 66 three-set matches since the turn of the century -- only Aryna Sabalenka  (68) has won more in that span. This is relevant because three of the five sets Pegula has played against Noskova have required seven games to win -- a sign that this one might go the distance.

Pegula is the quintessential professional. Her three titles this year (Austin, Charleston and Bad Homburg) have come on three different surfaces. And here she is in Beijing, thriving in heavy conditions.

“She’s a big, powerful hitter -- big serve,” Pegula said of Noskova. “It’s tough playing someone like that because sometimes I feel like you have to wait for your chance and if you do get a chance and you don’t execute it can kind of slip away.

“I’m interested to see how it goes with the conditions.”

The Case for Noskova

This is a milestone moment for Noskova -- and she knows it.

“I was on the edge of the Top 30, Top 35, trying to find my place,” Noskova said of her play earlier this year. “I think it was a couple of months ago when I thought, ‘It would be nice to break into the Top 20 by the end of the year.’”

She’s already collected 390 ranking points here and a semifinal victory would run that total to 650 points, enough to crack the Top 20 next week.

Noskova, who has won four straight matches for the first time since the Prague Open back in July, is playing with confidence. This is her fourth WTA-level semifinal this year, following Abu Dhabi, Bad Homburg and Prague.

Three years ago, when she reached the semifinals in Prague at the age of 17, Noskova jumped into the Top 100 and supplanted Gauff as the youngest member of that exclusive club. She’s currently the No. 2 player for the Czech Republic, not far behind Karolina Muchova and ahead of major champions Barbora Krejcikova and Marketa Vondrousova.

Noskova is also the third youngest woman in the PIF WTA Rankings Top 35, after No. 5 Mirra Andreeva (18) and No. 23 Victoria Mboko (19).

The upside of that youth is that Noskova is playing a fearless brand of tennis. Against Pegula, she needs to take care of her hefty serve and limit the double faults that sometimes creep into her game.

Noskova remembers the last time they played, in Bad Homburg.

“That was tough match for me,” she said. “I had some leads, but I couldn’t finish out the match. This [the win over Kartal] was my best match here so far. I felt really great on court.

“Feeling my game, just want to stay on my path.”

Here’s another compelling reason to like Noskova:

After promising results in Abu Dhabi (3-1), Doha (2-1), Dubai (3-1) and now Beijing (4-0), no woman -- not even Iga Swiatek -- has compiled more than her 12 match wins in Asia.